ONE MORE SAFE BET AND GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORT TERM TO MEDIUM TERM. INDI GLYCOL: RS 106.55:

Approaching towards support of 6080 lvl. Cover short and wait for next trade. Avoid fresh short now may get trapped.

Ø  Conclusion with respect to last trading day. 

Ø  We are in SELL mode in NIFTY since 5^th November once it breached its 6348 low and now we are below its 10 double EMA placed at 6360. 

> Cover short as we are now at the imp support area of 6080 lvl and wait for the next trigger. Trading above 6190 Future and 6145 spot will indicates down move is paused or over. 

Till that time now it’s a no trading zone. Cover short near 6080 and wait for the next trade. In last 5 days we have been observing consistent 3 black crow bearish pattern. 

Today, 6160 is the crucial intraday level for Nifty.

If Nifty sustains below 6160 , then it could test 6080 and below that level it could test 6030. 
Instead, if Nifty trades above 6160, then it could test 6190.

NIFTY TOPPED OUT FOR SHORT TERM ONE LEG OF UP MOVE IS OVER: EXPECT 6054 OR 5900 AS NEW DN lvl

As expected NIFTY is now entering in SELL mode: Major Big hurdle is now 6250 and last one 6354.
A small rising wedge is emerging on 90 min chart indicating short term outlook weak.
Fresh short below 6170 close with SL of 6225 as SL.
And remain short.
SELL BHEL, DIVIS & TCS turned weak. SELL on rally 

Nifty Completed Crucial Fiboancci Corrective Rally For strong up gain need to surpass 6010 lvl Near term Support is at 5754.

Ø  Nifty competed its 0.618 corrective rally of last decline 6174 to 5754 area in just 3 working days and on Friday a pattern called DOJI is formed. Now it is a trend deciding area. Again now trading below 5920 will have some pressure and unwinding of long while close above 6010 will create problem to short trader and they will come to cover the same.

Ø  On little larger picture structure is very strong and stay long with SL of 5754 as your important stop while to protect trade even you can have SL of 5800 as near term SL

Ø  Since the structure is of mix bag and not showing any perfect clue we have to shift or take help of oscillator. The weekly and daily oscillators are +ve and moving towards overbought area with values at 38.18 in daily and 79.06 in weekly time frame.  

Ø  Major hurdle on higher side is around 6170 to 6180 where maximum profit booking is needed to do. While 5798 is breached we can expect the downward move will get acceleration.

Ø  The analysis can be wrong so protect your long with 5800 lvl

Ø  The speed of this move will be a wonder to watch

Ø  Point of recognition will come at 6300 when fundamental and technical views will be the same. And novice trader will enter in the market with left out feelings.

Ø  Chances of making higher bottom against 5754 after surpassing 5900 or 6000 may be observed.

Ø  That will be a golden opportunity once In a life time to buy if our analysis is right

Ø  Stay long in nifty, bank nifty and Dow.

Ø  We recommend to stay long  only and avoid short even if sell signal comes.

Ø  Be more aggressive on long above close of 6010 lvl.  

Strategy: STAY LONG ONLY AND BUY ON DECLINE WITH PROPER SL FOR TRADE AND RIDE with SL of 5800 lvl.

·          Strength lvl is turned up from 14.71 to 26.33 on daily and 79.44 from 76.14 in weekly time frame.   

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6010 and then 6180 and support 5920, 5800 and 5729.

Bank NIFTY:

Closed at 10218 UP BY 3.47% on day basis:  An up trend is started and likely to progress till BN is above 9960.

  

Ø  For long term time frame: Monthly chart: Negative divergence in the oscillator indicates that there is a lack of interest at higher lvl as price moves above. The trend deciding lvl for the Bank NIFTY is 10240 and resistance area is at 10340, 10630 and 10890. While important support is at 9980 below which 9450 is expected.

The recent bounced back from 8500 levels and retraced more than 50% of the previous down move.  Failure to sustain at higher levels indicates that recent bounce was just short covering and major trend remains same.

Ø  After sharp bounce in Bank nifty many market participants had an impression that index had completed down move and started the next move on upside. However, sharp reversal from the middle of trend has left with probable scenarios as per Elliott wave counts which is shown below As can be seen from the chart above all the oscillators are trading below their respective averages. And once the levels of 5,811

Ø  A correction of entire up move from 8349 to 11287 is over with almost 50% correction.

Ø  Even Bank NIFTY corrected jus 0.618% of the last decline and now important resistance is at 10500 and major upthrust can be observed only if it close above 10500 lvl.

Ø  Also EMA is which turned weak is turned flat and placed at 10160/10236.

Ø  THE ST is likely to act as temporary resistance area but likely to surpass in the coming days. It is now at 10379 and 10477. Once this lvl is surpassed a free ride to new high will be observed.

Ø  Long trader should get more active only above 10500 is surpassed.

Ø   

BANK NIFTY: IS IN BUY MODE WITH SL OF 10100 LVL ADD MORE ABOVE 10400 AND THEN 10500. 

I anticipated bottom around 5770 support area Now Buy Buy and BUY nifty and Bank Nifty with SL of recent Low

Nifty Technical Update:

Minute Observation as under:

Ø  My daily chart rendered swing reversal with “Harami Black” Candlestick chart pattern.

Ø  In the weekly chart a perfect sub wave which I was expecting when market was in the toping out formation: Now that sub wave is formed and getting ready for a big move to cross 6174 recent high.

Ø  D-channel support area is at 5715 and 0.382% of the previous rise comes around 5767 FO price. Both achieved and turned back because of daily oversold area.  

Ø  Now 5767 is almost reached with STK% at its lowest lvl after 5108 low. This is nothing but indicates underlying strength is very strong. Trading or close above 5840 will give min TGT of 5914, 5964 and 6014.

Ø  Since we observed 5 up and 3 down wave so my strong feeling is that we are now entering in a best part of the trader’s wave called as 3^rd wave. The intensity and speed will be very fast and strong. Avoid short sell in this area. Or will get caught badly and may have financial hazard.

Ø  My 240 min chart STK% is rendering buy signal and turned up from oversold area. While nearest resistance is at 5898 and 5915.

Ø  After observing 5 wave rise (up move) now we have observed 3 wave decline with 38% correction of the last entire up move.

Ø  My turning day was 30^th and Market made a bottom on that day and on first it turned up giving a clear clue that buy with an SL of low made on 1^st October.

Ø  Very crucial juncture in world financial markets and in the past in such instances market has shown a wave 3 with best return on investment.

Ø  I think my perception is that we are again starting a strong up move in the coming days. I will prefer to buy with SL of 5600 and accumulate calls of 5800 to 5900 till it is below 5850. Once it surpasses 5850 then take a heavy position in 5900, lesser position in 6000 and some position in 6000 call.

Ø  Add more if by chance you get and opportunity to buy around 5650 or 5600 area. Which according to me seems to be very low.

Ø  If calculation and wave structure is right then in this month only we will see a new high surpassing 6200.

Ø  The analysis can be wrong so buy 5800 calls and use capital what u can loose

Ø  The speed of this move will be a wonder to watch

Ø  Point of recognition will come at 6300 when fundamental and technical views will be the same. And novice trader will enter in the market with left out feelings.

Ø  Chances of making higher bottom against 5754 after surpassing 5900 or 6000 may be observed.

Ø  That will be a golden opportunity once In a life time to buy if our analysis is right

Ø  Stay long in nifty, bank nifty and Dow.

Ø  We recommend to close shorts once it trades above 5860 lvl. 

Strategy: COVER SHORT and go long heavily with SL of 5750 lvl.

·          Strength lvl is now 14.71 on daily and 76.14 in weekly time frame.   

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 5860 and then 5995 and support 5770  and 5729 and last 5640 key supports.

Bank NIFTY:

Closed at 9959 UP BY 2.67% on day basis:  A CORRECTION IS OVER AND BUY ON DECLINE OPPORTUNITY STARTS.

  

Ø  Only swing reversal and Strength oscillator renders buy. MACD Histogram indicates no more panic is expected hence buy on decline should be a strategy.

Ø  Trading above 10250 will rendere fresh and strong buy signal.

Ø  A correction of entire up move from 8349 to 11287 is over with almost 50% correction.

Ø  Also EMA is turned weak and prices are below its EMA and now at 10274/10383.

Ø  THE ST is now at 10379 and 10477 which is likely to be strongest resistance in the next up move. Once that lvl is surpassed a free ride to new high will be observed.

Ø  A sub-wave formation is in the making while daily chart is entered in oversold area.

Ø   

BANK NIFTY: IS IN BUY MODE WITH SL OF 9600 LVL ADD MORE ABOVE 10000 AND THEN 10300. 

i)             Aurobindo: Rs 211.35. Our buy call continues now SL is 203. Fresh buy near Rs 207 TGT for the week is 215, 221 and 228. Ride on the move and stay invested or long.

ii)            CENTURY: Rs 248.50. Stock re-entered in long or up trend. It has made a higher bottom at 239.60 against 236.40. Buy and hold with SL 232 TGT is 255 and 261. Stock is forming a symmetrical and breakout from rs 255 will take fast to 265 or higher.

iii)           AXIS BANK: Rs 1053.30. stock has made a bottom at 1002 and another bottom at 1001 and on last trading day some strong reversal formation on daily bar chart observed. Buy with SL of first stop of 1028 and major support at 1001. TGT of 1068 and 1082

iv)           Exide Industries: Rs 136.20: Buy with SL of 132 for the TGT of 141 and 145. Close above Rs 137 will attract more buyers and stock may show a rocket move.

v)            DLF: RS 138.10: Fresh buy signal observed on last trading day. Buy and hold with SL of 133 and look for the TGT of 145 and 151.50.

vi)           IBREAL: RS 56.55: INIITATE BUY ABOVE 57: SL RS 54 TGT  rs 59.90 and 61.80.

vii)          ICICI: RS 918.60; Buy as stock has made a bottom at Rs 885. Buy with SL of 895 and look for the price of Rs 932 and 946. Close above 857 will have strong up move up to 969 to 983.

viii)         INDUSIND BANK: RS 387.30. Buy with SL of 374 for TGT of 403 and 416. Stock will move with speed once it trades above Rs 392.

ix)           MRF: RS 14045: Buy and ride with SL of 13600 TGT is Rs 14560 and 15005.

x)            TATAGLOBAL: Rs 151.45: A strong buy is observed and buy with SL of 145 for the TGT of 161 and 164. Close above 155 will have strong upward move.

xi)           YES BANK: Rs 298.80. Initiate buy above 303 and ride. Your SL would be Rs 295 TGT is 314 and 325.

INVESTMENT BUY: SPARC RS 131.95. SL RS 125 AND RIDE ADD MORE AOVE 137 IS CLOSED.

BALLARPUR: RS 10.60. BUY ABOVE 11.30 AND ADD MORE ABOVE 12.50 FOR TGT OF 18 TO 20.

FOR LONG TERM: BUY BH FORGE, BHARTI AND IGL ON EVERY DECLINE STOCK IS ENTERED IN MAJOR UP TREND. 

Expiry ended with No fireworks: Rollover Done With Hefty Premium Bull’s Will Be Back Above 5995 support 5915 and 5883 Banking Sector Entering In Oversold

Nifty Technical Update:

Ø  Nifty fresh structure is as under:

Ø  On weekly chart: swing up from 5118 to 6142 and swing support is at 5798 spot basis. Below 5798 expect fresh weakness up to 5751 and 5630.

Ø  Daily Chart: a swing started from 5804 to 6142 is almost reversed. A sub wave is in progress and has a possible to move up with TGT of 5937, 5976 and 6015. Close above 6075 should turn +ve.

Ø  Below 5810 expect 5700.

Ø  4 hour chart: support 5943 and resistance 6016 future. Below 5918 expect weakness up to 5883, 5849 or 5817.

Ø  Hourly Chart: Buy above 6000 for TGT of 6048. Sell below 5915 TGT 5883. 

Ø  Rest of the detail is same as per previous mail.

Strategy: COVER SHORT AND create long above 5995

Sell short below 5880 only.

·          EMA is turned in bullish mode (yet direction is not changed) with 5981/5983 lvl. 10/10

·          STK% is now at 26.22 from 34.56 in daily and at 75.42 from 74.25 in weekly from previous day.  

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6103 and trade fresh long only and only above 6103 lvl. Todays range is 5934, 5980 and 6037 and support 5832, 5875 and 5729 key supports.

Bank NIFTY:

Closed at 10212.85 UP BY 0.32% on day basis and -5.43% on week basis.

  

Ø  Update: ADX daily is in BUY MODE while 4hr chart is in sell mode.  

Ø  Also EMA is turned weak and prices are below its EMA and now at 10485/10497.

Ø  THE ST is now at 10790 and 10892 which is likely to be strongest resistance in the next up move.

Ø  A subwave formation is in the making while daily chart is entered in oversold area. Reversal lvls are 10350, 10530, 10690 and 10850

Ø  While trading below 10000 will open fresh weakness and sell of will come.

Ø  SO trading or close above 10330 should give extreme short term buy. While major buy will render only above 10550. On last trading day we observed pattern called “counter attack Bear” so more downside is possible.

Ø  BN is now near its previous bottom support area where we have large number of cluster as support. So bounce is expected now.

Ø  FROM HOURLY CHART IT IS CLEAR THAT LVL OF 10000 IS MORE IMPORTANT AND NOT LIKLEY TO BREACH.

BANK NIFTY: IS IN SELL MODE AND COVER SHORT ABOVE 10330 LVL. 

Expiry Syndrome Prevail: Rollover At Hefty Premium Bull’s Are Likely To Get Trapped: Oscillator continues its downward journey

Nifty Technical Update:

Further update after topping out at 6214 and swing turned down;

Ø  We are in a first leg of down move of 3 wave corrective pattern.

Ø  In this 3 wave Fibonacci correction has to complete up to 5855 or max 5788 lvl.

Ø  First correction of 5922 is now seems to be over and hourly chart (not shown hear) is entering in oversold area.

Ø  This calls for a bounce of 50% of the last decline 6214 to 5922. Which comes around 6068 to 6103 lvl.

Ø  As per daily chart surpassing of 6012 should trigger some buying and 6110 should be the next strongest resistance area.

Ø  ADX continues and remains in BUY mode.

Ø  EMA is breached but closed near the EMA and momentum of EMA is comes to zero hence in next 5 to 8 hours either upward or downward momentum should unfold.

Ø  If you look minutely each bar starting from correction is becoming narrower on every day. i.e. high low difference of each bar is becoming shorter. Also after 2 days decline we observed bull’s day on last trading day. So today I expect some buying before expiry.

Ø  The warning area is premium and most of the future and nifty has hefty premium of 10% to 11% which is quite high and indicates bull’s are forcefully shifty their position and they are very bullish in the market (off course then only they will pay such a high premium as if stock is not going to available). Here our oscillator comes in the picture. It is not suggesting spending such a high premium.

Ø  Being expiry week I don’t think it will surpass 6125 lvl in this time frame and as First bigger move consumed almost 15 days with only 3 down days so this correction should consume 5 to 8 days of which we just completed 2 days. So today we might see bottom formation of temporary nature around 5890/80 lvl and a counter trend rally of “b” wave will undergo.

Ø  At least for today I don’t see breaking of 5880.

Strategy: COVER SHORT AND WAIT FOR RALLY TO MOVE IN 6080 TO 6110 AREA FOR FRESH SHORT.

·          EMA is turned in bullish mode (yet direction is not changed) with 5942/5908 lvl. 10/10

·          ADX continues to remain in bullish mode.

·          STK% is now at 55.84 FROM 66.65 in daily and at 75.94 in weekly time frame.  

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6103 and trade fresh long only and only above 6103 lvl. support 5880, 5864 and 5814 key supports.

Bank NIFTY closed at 10201 DN BY -0.42% on day basis and -4.86% on week basis.

  

Ø  Update: ADX daily is in BUY mode from 10^th September.

Ø  Also EMA is turned weak and prices are below its EMA and now at 10438/10453.

Ø  THE ST is now at 10818 and 10924 which is likely to be strongest resistance in the next up move.

Ø  The force of damage is getting over as the day passes and we observed 3^rd RED candle on last trading day which is an NRB.

Ø  SO trading or close above 10330 should give extreme short term buy. While major buy will render only above 10550.

Ø  BN is now near its previous bottom support area where we have large number of cluster as support. So bounce is expected now.

Ø  FROM HOURLY CHART IT IS CLEAR THAT LVL OF 10000 IS MORE IMPORTANT AND NOT LIKLEY TO BREACH.

BANK NIFTY: IS IN SELL MODE AND COVER SHORT ABOVE 10330 LVL. 

Again Bear’s Have Upper Hand Be Cautious at 5810. Some Bounce Is On Card !!! Expiry Syndrome Prevail: Banking: sector in trouble again

Nifty Technical Update:

Continuation to my previous thought and argument the downward move started from 6174 high is now nearing to competed wave “a” of the 3 wave decline a, b and c. Since wave “a” already gave up 23% of the last move TGT of 5923 now next lvl 0.382% is 5762 and some other parameter also indicates that it will halt around that lvl.

Being expiry week I don’t think it will surpass 6125 lvl in this time frame and as First bigger move consumed almost 15 days with only 3 down days so this correction should consume 5 to 8 days of which we just completed 2 days. So today we might see bottom formation of temporary nature around 5890/80 lvl and a counter trend rally of “b” wave will undergo. If Nifty takes support around 5767 then 6011 will be important resistance lvl while entire 3 wave correction should complete at 5640 lvl in 8 days maximum time.

I will prefer to remain short till 6011 is surpassed and closed above that.

Also I will prefer to cover my 50% short around 5880 ( a fresh short below 5870 for TGT of 5767) will under go. Since basic structure is turned weak I will reconfirm before making any long as my system is showing warning on long.

Rupee has made a low at 61.75 levels and again oscillator is turned up. We have strong resistance at 64.58 and testing of recent high seems to be remote.

Basic support for the dollar/rupee is 60.80.

Brent Crude prices is now showing end of one corrective move and close above 6820 should give strong rally. Remember my buy will trigger only above 6680 and aggressive buying above 6820.

Momentum technical oscillators RSI & Stochastic are placed and progressing in downward direction. Only I expect rally of selling opportunity.

Avoid initiating fresh positional longs at this lvl as the rally in the last 3-4 days from 5800 to 6130 has been too fast & on the back of heavy short-covering, Nifty futures could retrace first up to 5880-5767 lvl.

Strategy: HOLD SHORT with SL of 6112 lvl. Cover 50%  short near 5880.

·          EMA is turned in bullish mode (yet direction is not changed) with 5935/5935 lvl. 10/10

·          ADX continues to remain in bullish mode.

·          STK% is now at 66.65 in daily and at 74.86 in weekly time frame.  

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6011 and trade fresh long only and only above 6011 lvl. support 5864 and 5814 AND 5741 key supports.

Bank NIFTY closed at 10244 DN BY -4.46% on day basis and 4.46% % on week basis.

  

ADX daily is in BUY mode from 10^th September. Also my SMOTHING TRADE is now at 101019/11126  which is breached yesterday indicating fresh weakness and now stay short with SL of 10500 on closing basis.

AND CLOSE BELOW THIS LVL CONSIDER WEAKNESS IN INDEX THEN EXPECT 9818  AS THE NEXT SUPPORT AREA. ON HIGHER SIDE 11300 IS THE KEY RESISTANCE LVL NOW. ARRIVED NEAR IMP SUPPORT AREA AND HENCE WE EXPECT SOME BOUNCE.

BANK NIFTY: IS IN SELL MODE AND ENTERED CORRECTION AND STAY SHORT WITH SL OF 10560 LVL.