Ø Nifty competed
its 0.618 corrective rally of last decline 6174 to 5754 area in just 3 working
days and on Friday a pattern called DOJI is formed. Now it is a trend deciding
area. Again now trading below 5920 will have some pressure and unwinding of
long while close above 6010 will create problem to short trader and they will
come to cover the same.
Ø On
little larger picture structure is very strong and stay long with SL of 5754 as
your important stop while to protect trade even you can have SL of 5800 as near
term SL
Ø Since
the structure is of mix bag and not showing any perfect clue we have to shift
or take help of oscillator. The weekly and daily oscillators are +ve and moving
towards overbought area with values at 38.18 in daily and 79.06 in weekly time
frame.
Ø Major
hurdle on higher side is around 6170 to 6180 where maximum profit booking is
needed to do. While 5798 is breached we can expect the downward move will get
acceleration.
Ø The analysis can be wrong
so protect your long with 5800 lvl
Ø The speed of this move will be a wonder to watch
Ø Point of recognition will come at 6300 when fundamental and technical
views will be the same. And novice trader will enter in the market with left
out feelings.
Ø Chances of making higher bottom against 5754 after surpassing 5900 or 6000
may be observed.
Ø That will be a golden opportunity once In a life time to buy if our
analysis is right
Ø Stay long in nifty, bank nifty and Dow.
Ø We recommend to stay long
only and avoid short even if sell signal comes.
Ø Be more aggressive on long above close of 6010 lvl.
Strategy: STAY
LONG ONLY AND BUY ON DECLINE WITH PROPER SL FOR TRADE AND RIDE with SL of 5800
lvl.
·
Strength lvl is turned up from 14.71
to 26.33 on daily and 79.44 from 76.14 in weekly time frame.
Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6010
and then 6180 and support 5920, 5800 and 5729.
Bank NIFTY:
Closed at 10218 UP BY 3.47% on day basis: An up trend is started and likely to
progress till BN is above 9960.
Ø For long term time frame: Monthly
chart: Negative divergence in the oscillator indicates that there is a lack of
interest at higher lvl as price moves above. The trend deciding lvl for the
Bank NIFTY is 10240 and resistance area is at 10340, 10630 and 10890. While
important support is at 9980 below which 9450 is expected.
The recent bounced back from 8500 levels and retraced more
than 50% of the previous down move. Failure to sustain at higher levels
indicates that recent bounce was just short covering and major trend remains
same.
Ø After sharp bounce in Bank nifty many market participants
had an impression that index had completed down move and started the next move
on upside. However, sharp reversal from the middle of trend has left with
probable scenarios as per Elliott wave counts which is shown below As can
be seen from the chart above all the oscillators are trading below their
respective averages. And once the levels of 5,811
Ø A
correction of entire up move from 8349 to 11287 is over with almost 50%
correction.
Ø Even
Bank NIFTY corrected jus 0.618% of the last decline and now important
resistance is at 10500 and major upthrust can be observed only if it close
above 10500 lvl.
Ø Also
EMA is which turned weak is turned flat and placed at 10160/10236.
Ø THE ST
is likely to act as temporary resistance area but likely to surpass in the
coming days. It is now at 10379 and 10477. Once this lvl is surpassed a free
ride to new high will be observed.
Ø Long trader should get more active only
above 10500 is surpassed.
Ø
BANK NIFTY: IS IN BUY MODE WITH SL OF 10100 LVL
ADD MORE ABOVE 10400 AND THEN 10500.
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