Sunday, October 6, 2013

Nifty Completed Crucial Fiboancci Corrective Rally For strong up gain need to surpass 6010 lvl Near term Support is at 5754.


Ø  Nifty competed its 0.618 corrective rally of last decline 6174 to 5754 area in just 3 working days and on Friday a pattern called DOJI is formed. Now it is a trend deciding area. Again now trading below 5920 will have some pressure and unwinding of long while close above 6010 will create problem to short trader and they will come to cover the same.
Ø  On little larger picture structure is very strong and stay long with SL of 5754 as your important stop while to protect trade even you can have SL of 5800 as near term SL
Ø  Since the structure is of mix bag and not showing any perfect clue we have to shift or take help of oscillator. The weekly and daily oscillators are +ve and moving towards overbought area with values at 38.18 in daily and 79.06 in weekly time frame.  
Ø  Major hurdle on higher side is around 6170 to 6180 where maximum profit booking is needed to do. While 5798 is breached we can expect the downward move will get acceleration.
Ø  The analysis can be wrong so protect your long with 5800 lvl
Ø  The speed of this move will be a wonder to watch
Ø  Point of recognition will come at 6300 when fundamental and technical views will be the same. And novice trader will enter in the market with left out feelings.
Ø  Chances of making higher bottom against 5754 after surpassing 5900 or 6000 may be observed.
Ø  That will be a golden opportunity once In a life time to buy if our analysis is right
Ø  Stay long in nifty, bank nifty and Dow.

Ø  We recommend to stay long  only and avoid short even if sell signal comes.
Ø  Be more aggressive on long above close of 6010 lvl.  

Strategy: STAY LONG ONLY AND BUY ON DECLINE WITH PROPER SL FOR TRADE AND RIDE with SL of 5800 lvl.
·          Strength lvl is turned up from 14.71 to 26.33 on daily and 79.44 from 76.14 in weekly time frame.   
Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6010 and then 6180 and support 5920, 5800 and 5729.




Bank NIFTY:
Closed at 10218 UP BY 3.47% on day basis:  An up trend is started and likely to progress till BN is above 9960.

  
Ø  For long term time frame: Monthly chart: Negative divergence in the oscillator indicates that there is a lack of interest at higher lvl as price moves above. The trend deciding lvl for the Bank NIFTY is 10240 and resistance area is at 10340, 10630 and 10890. While important support is at 9980 below which 9450 is expected.
The recent bounced back from 8500 levels and retraced more than 50% of the previous down move.  Failure to sustain at higher levels indicates that recent bounce was just short covering and major trend remains same.
Ø  After sharp bounce in Bank nifty many market participants had an impression that index had completed down move and started the next move on upside. However, sharp reversal from the middle of trend has left with probable scenarios as per Elliott wave counts which is shown below As can be seen from the chart above all the oscillators are trading below their respective averages. And once the levels of 5,811
Ø  A correction of entire up move from 8349 to 11287 is over with almost 50% correction.
Ø  Even Bank NIFTY corrected jus 0.618% of the last decline and now important resistance is at 10500 and major upthrust can be observed only if it close above 10500 lvl.
Ø  Also EMA is which turned weak is turned flat and placed at 10160/10236.
Ø  THE ST is likely to act as temporary resistance area but likely to surpass in the coming days. It is now at 10379 and 10477. Once this lvl is surpassed a free ride to new high will be observed.
Ø  Long trader should get more active only above 10500 is surpassed.
Ø   
BANK NIFTY: IS IN BUY MODE WITH SL OF 10100 LVL ADD MORE ABOVE 10400 AND THEN 10500. 

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