NIFTY TOPPED OUT FOR SHORT TERM ONE LEG OF UP MOVE IS OVER: EXPECT 6054 OR 5900 AS NEW DN lvl

As expected NIFTY is now entering in SELL mode: Major Big hurdle is now 6250 and last one 6354.
A small rising wedge is emerging on 90 min chart indicating short term outlook weak.
Fresh short below 6170 close with SL of 6225 as SL.
And remain short.
SELL BHEL, DIVIS & TCS turned weak. SELL on rally 

Nifty Completed Crucial Fiboancci Corrective Rally For strong up gain need to surpass 6010 lvl Near term Support is at 5754.

Ø  Nifty competed its 0.618 corrective rally of last decline 6174 to 5754 area in just 3 working days and on Friday a pattern called DOJI is formed. Now it is a trend deciding area. Again now trading below 5920 will have some pressure and unwinding of long while close above 6010 will create problem to short trader and they will come to cover the same.

Ø  On little larger picture structure is very strong and stay long with SL of 5754 as your important stop while to protect trade even you can have SL of 5800 as near term SL

Ø  Since the structure is of mix bag and not showing any perfect clue we have to shift or take help of oscillator. The weekly and daily oscillators are +ve and moving towards overbought area with values at 38.18 in daily and 79.06 in weekly time frame.  

Ø  Major hurdle on higher side is around 6170 to 6180 where maximum profit booking is needed to do. While 5798 is breached we can expect the downward move will get acceleration.

Ø  The analysis can be wrong so protect your long with 5800 lvl

Ø  The speed of this move will be a wonder to watch

Ø  Point of recognition will come at 6300 when fundamental and technical views will be the same. And novice trader will enter in the market with left out feelings.

Ø  Chances of making higher bottom against 5754 after surpassing 5900 or 6000 may be observed.

Ø  That will be a golden opportunity once In a life time to buy if our analysis is right

Ø  Stay long in nifty, bank nifty and Dow.

Ø  We recommend to stay long  only and avoid short even if sell signal comes.

Ø  Be more aggressive on long above close of 6010 lvl.  

Strategy: STAY LONG ONLY AND BUY ON DECLINE WITH PROPER SL FOR TRADE AND RIDE with SL of 5800 lvl.

·          Strength lvl is turned up from 14.71 to 26.33 on daily and 79.44 from 76.14 in weekly time frame.   

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6010 and then 6180 and support 5920, 5800 and 5729.

Bank NIFTY:

Closed at 10218 UP BY 3.47% on day basis:  An up trend is started and likely to progress till BN is above 9960.

  

Ø  For long term time frame: Monthly chart: Negative divergence in the oscillator indicates that there is a lack of interest at higher lvl as price moves above. The trend deciding lvl for the Bank NIFTY is 10240 and resistance area is at 10340, 10630 and 10890. While important support is at 9980 below which 9450 is expected.

The recent bounced back from 8500 levels and retraced more than 50% of the previous down move.  Failure to sustain at higher levels indicates that recent bounce was just short covering and major trend remains same.

Ø  After sharp bounce in Bank nifty many market participants had an impression that index had completed down move and started the next move on upside. However, sharp reversal from the middle of trend has left with probable scenarios as per Elliott wave counts which is shown below As can be seen from the chart above all the oscillators are trading below their respective averages. And once the levels of 5,811

Ø  A correction of entire up move from 8349 to 11287 is over with almost 50% correction.

Ø  Even Bank NIFTY corrected jus 0.618% of the last decline and now important resistance is at 10500 and major upthrust can be observed only if it close above 10500 lvl.

Ø  Also EMA is which turned weak is turned flat and placed at 10160/10236.

Ø  THE ST is likely to act as temporary resistance area but likely to surpass in the coming days. It is now at 10379 and 10477. Once this lvl is surpassed a free ride to new high will be observed.

Ø  Long trader should get more active only above 10500 is surpassed.

Ø   

BANK NIFTY: IS IN BUY MODE WITH SL OF 10100 LVL ADD MORE ABOVE 10400 AND THEN 10500. 

I anticipated bottom around 5770 support area Now Buy Buy and BUY nifty and Bank Nifty with SL of recent Low

Nifty Technical Update:

Minute Observation as under:

Ø  My daily chart rendered swing reversal with “Harami Black” Candlestick chart pattern.

Ø  In the weekly chart a perfect sub wave which I was expecting when market was in the toping out formation: Now that sub wave is formed and getting ready for a big move to cross 6174 recent high.

Ø  D-channel support area is at 5715 and 0.382% of the previous rise comes around 5767 FO price. Both achieved and turned back because of daily oversold area.  

Ø  Now 5767 is almost reached with STK% at its lowest lvl after 5108 low. This is nothing but indicates underlying strength is very strong. Trading or close above 5840 will give min TGT of 5914, 5964 and 6014.

Ø  Since we observed 5 up and 3 down wave so my strong feeling is that we are now entering in a best part of the trader’s wave called as 3^rd wave. The intensity and speed will be very fast and strong. Avoid short sell in this area. Or will get caught badly and may have financial hazard.

Ø  My 240 min chart STK% is rendering buy signal and turned up from oversold area. While nearest resistance is at 5898 and 5915.

Ø  After observing 5 wave rise (up move) now we have observed 3 wave decline with 38% correction of the last entire up move.

Ø  My turning day was 30^th and Market made a bottom on that day and on first it turned up giving a clear clue that buy with an SL of low made on 1^st October.

Ø  Very crucial juncture in world financial markets and in the past in such instances market has shown a wave 3 with best return on investment.

Ø  I think my perception is that we are again starting a strong up move in the coming days. I will prefer to buy with SL of 5600 and accumulate calls of 5800 to 5900 till it is below 5850. Once it surpasses 5850 then take a heavy position in 5900, lesser position in 6000 and some position in 6000 call.

Ø  Add more if by chance you get and opportunity to buy around 5650 or 5600 area. Which according to me seems to be very low.

Ø  If calculation and wave structure is right then in this month only we will see a new high surpassing 6200.

Ø  The analysis can be wrong so buy 5800 calls and use capital what u can loose

Ø  The speed of this move will be a wonder to watch

Ø  Point of recognition will come at 6300 when fundamental and technical views will be the same. And novice trader will enter in the market with left out feelings.

Ø  Chances of making higher bottom against 5754 after surpassing 5900 or 6000 may be observed.

Ø  That will be a golden opportunity once In a life time to buy if our analysis is right

Ø  Stay long in nifty, bank nifty and Dow.

Ø  We recommend to close shorts once it trades above 5860 lvl. 

Strategy: COVER SHORT and go long heavily with SL of 5750 lvl.

·          Strength lvl is now 14.71 on daily and 76.14 in weekly time frame.   

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 5860 and then 5995 and support 5770  and 5729 and last 5640 key supports.

Bank NIFTY:

Closed at 9959 UP BY 2.67% on day basis:  A CORRECTION IS OVER AND BUY ON DECLINE OPPORTUNITY STARTS.

  

Ø  Only swing reversal and Strength oscillator renders buy. MACD Histogram indicates no more panic is expected hence buy on decline should be a strategy.

Ø  Trading above 10250 will rendere fresh and strong buy signal.

Ø  A correction of entire up move from 8349 to 11287 is over with almost 50% correction.

Ø  Also EMA is turned weak and prices are below its EMA and now at 10274/10383.

Ø  THE ST is now at 10379 and 10477 which is likely to be strongest resistance in the next up move. Once that lvl is surpassed a free ride to new high will be observed.

Ø  A sub-wave formation is in the making while daily chart is entered in oversold area.

Ø   

BANK NIFTY: IS IN BUY MODE WITH SL OF 9600 LVL ADD MORE ABOVE 10000 AND THEN 10300. 

i)             Aurobindo: Rs 211.35. Our buy call continues now SL is 203. Fresh buy near Rs 207 TGT for the week is 215, 221 and 228. Ride on the move and stay invested or long.

ii)            CENTURY: Rs 248.50. Stock re-entered in long or up trend. It has made a higher bottom at 239.60 against 236.40. Buy and hold with SL 232 TGT is 255 and 261. Stock is forming a symmetrical and breakout from rs 255 will take fast to 265 or higher.

iii)           AXIS BANK: Rs 1053.30. stock has made a bottom at 1002 and another bottom at 1001 and on last trading day some strong reversal formation on daily bar chart observed. Buy with SL of first stop of 1028 and major support at 1001. TGT of 1068 and 1082

iv)           Exide Industries: Rs 136.20: Buy with SL of 132 for the TGT of 141 and 145. Close above Rs 137 will attract more buyers and stock may show a rocket move.

v)            DLF: RS 138.10: Fresh buy signal observed on last trading day. Buy and hold with SL of 133 and look for the TGT of 145 and 151.50.

vi)           IBREAL: RS 56.55: INIITATE BUY ABOVE 57: SL RS 54 TGT  rs 59.90 and 61.80.

vii)          ICICI: RS 918.60; Buy as stock has made a bottom at Rs 885. Buy with SL of 895 and look for the price of Rs 932 and 946. Close above 857 will have strong up move up to 969 to 983.

viii)         INDUSIND BANK: RS 387.30. Buy with SL of 374 for TGT of 403 and 416. Stock will move with speed once it trades above Rs 392.

ix)           MRF: RS 14045: Buy and ride with SL of 13600 TGT is Rs 14560 and 15005.

x)            TATAGLOBAL: Rs 151.45: A strong buy is observed and buy with SL of 145 for the TGT of 161 and 164. Close above 155 will have strong upward move.

xi)           YES BANK: Rs 298.80. Initiate buy above 303 and ride. Your SL would be Rs 295 TGT is 314 and 325.

INVESTMENT BUY: SPARC RS 131.95. SL RS 125 AND RIDE ADD MORE AOVE 137 IS CLOSED.

BALLARPUR: RS 10.60. BUY ABOVE 11.30 AND ADD MORE ABOVE 12.50 FOR TGT OF 18 TO 20.

FOR LONG TERM: BUY BH FORGE, BHARTI AND IGL ON EVERY DECLINE STOCK IS ENTERED IN MAJOR UP TREND.