Downward Move To Continue: Heading for 4727 to test

A temporary Bottom Formation @ 4827 Expected

5050 is Crucial: Below 5050 A free Fall Expected.

NIFTY VIEW AND TECHINCAL FACTOR:

During the week under review NIFT lost 4.94% while Sensex lost 4.90% compared to previous week. A real blood bath observed and violation of important bottom support of 5180 is on card. During the week NIFTY violated support of 5177/5195 trend line during trading hours but closed above 5195 levels. On the other hand Sensex violated 18295/17314 support area and closed below that giving clear downward breakout.

Considering sentiment, overseas market and other technical parameters in weekly range 5050 is must to achieve and once that level is breached 4827 will be the next levels.

Short term trader can buy aggressive near 4827 area. On the higher side above 5230 maximum 5325 can be observed to try the Friday’s GAP filling. Look at the chart once Nifty closed below the yellow horizontal line then “descending triangle” pattern will convert in to “downward channel” marked with RED color.

As per “medium term” and “long term” chart do not buy NIFTY unless it trades above 5555 levels.

The weekly Fib-range for the week is 5282 in normal behavior, 5334 if some buying from FII or DII observed and 5389 in extreme good condition. So surpassing of 5555 is most difficult task for next 3-4 weeks time frame.

In short bias is –ve and toward testing of 5023 area before 12^th of August and 3727 around 29^th August.

    

The other indices turned weak and expected to be weaker are as under:

Ø  Bank NIFTY 10354 is weak and may give rally up to 10499, 10607 where fresh selling is anticipated. Downward TGT would be 10017 which is 10^th Feb low.

Ø  FMCG: 9967: Turned fresh weak during the week any rally up to 10046 or 10150 is a best chance to go short. Probable TGT would be Rs 9617, 9328.

Ø  IT is heading for another strong down weave. Likely to test 5348 levels. Current close is 5911 level on last Friday.

Ø  CNX Junior NIFTY: 10542: It has formed a “M” formation as a continuation pattern. This indicates that a further damage is expected. It should trade below or test 10037 low and then only reversal could be anticipated.

Ø  Pharma: 4710: During the week under review this indices has rendered clear sell signal. SELL stock on rally falling under this stock.

Ø  Realty: 251.20: Likley to continue its downward journey and will reverse only and only if it trades above 300 levels.

Ø   world market will lead Indian market to panic. Here at domestic front selling is anticipated not on account of some problem at domestic front. It will be a selling of FII’s which they were selling just to clean up their mess at home town business. Any way this is going to create real panic in the market.

Precious Metal:

Gold: 24026: Highly over bought status in daily as well as weekly. No Fresh buy. Hold long if any is there with SL of 23840. Close below 23710 will turn in to fresh weakness.

SILVER: 57105: It is turned –ve and rendering bearish signal for extreme short term. SELL on rally with SL of 60300 as your nearest SL. Trading below 56590 during the weak will be a next short sell signal. In fact it has retraced previous decline exactly by 50% and turned weak. Since short term oscillator and Elliott both are pointing downward so any kind of rally observed should be used both to exit long and create short position.