Expiry ended with No fireworks: Rollover Done With Hefty Premium Bull’s Will Be Back Above 5995 support 5915 and 5883 Banking Sector Entering In Oversold

Nifty Technical Update:

Ø  Nifty fresh structure is as under:

Ø  On weekly chart: swing up from 5118 to 6142 and swing support is at 5798 spot basis. Below 5798 expect fresh weakness up to 5751 and 5630.

Ø  Daily Chart: a swing started from 5804 to 6142 is almost reversed. A sub wave is in progress and has a possible to move up with TGT of 5937, 5976 and 6015. Close above 6075 should turn +ve.

Ø  Below 5810 expect 5700.

Ø  4 hour chart: support 5943 and resistance 6016 future. Below 5918 expect weakness up to 5883, 5849 or 5817.

Ø  Hourly Chart: Buy above 6000 for TGT of 6048. Sell below 5915 TGT 5883. 

Ø  Rest of the detail is same as per previous mail.

Strategy: COVER SHORT AND create long above 5995

Sell short below 5880 only.

·          EMA is turned in bullish mode (yet direction is not changed) with 5981/5983 lvl. 10/10

·          STK% is now at 26.22 from 34.56 in daily and at 75.42 from 74.25 in weekly from previous day.  

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6103 and trade fresh long only and only above 6103 lvl. Todays range is 5934, 5980 and 6037 and support 5832, 5875 and 5729 key supports.

Bank NIFTY:

Closed at 10212.85 UP BY 0.32% on day basis and -5.43% on week basis.

  

Ø  Update: ADX daily is in BUY MODE while 4hr chart is in sell mode.  

Ø  Also EMA is turned weak and prices are below its EMA and now at 10485/10497.

Ø  THE ST is now at 10790 and 10892 which is likely to be strongest resistance in the next up move.

Ø  A subwave formation is in the making while daily chart is entered in oversold area. Reversal lvls are 10350, 10530, 10690 and 10850

Ø  While trading below 10000 will open fresh weakness and sell of will come.

Ø  SO trading or close above 10330 should give extreme short term buy. While major buy will render only above 10550. On last trading day we observed pattern called “counter attack Bear” so more downside is possible.

Ø  BN is now near its previous bottom support area where we have large number of cluster as support. So bounce is expected now.

Ø  FROM HOURLY CHART IT IS CLEAR THAT LVL OF 10000 IS MORE IMPORTANT AND NOT LIKLEY TO BREACH.

BANK NIFTY: IS IN SELL MODE AND COVER SHORT ABOVE 10330 LVL. 

Expiry Syndrome Prevail: Rollover At Hefty Premium Bull’s Are Likely To Get Trapped: Oscillator continues its downward journey

Nifty Technical Update:

Further update after topping out at 6214 and swing turned down;

Ø  We are in a first leg of down move of 3 wave corrective pattern.

Ø  In this 3 wave Fibonacci correction has to complete up to 5855 or max 5788 lvl.

Ø  First correction of 5922 is now seems to be over and hourly chart (not shown hear) is entering in oversold area.

Ø  This calls for a bounce of 50% of the last decline 6214 to 5922. Which comes around 6068 to 6103 lvl.

Ø  As per daily chart surpassing of 6012 should trigger some buying and 6110 should be the next strongest resistance area.

Ø  ADX continues and remains in BUY mode.

Ø  EMA is breached but closed near the EMA and momentum of EMA is comes to zero hence in next 5 to 8 hours either upward or downward momentum should unfold.

Ø  If you look minutely each bar starting from correction is becoming narrower on every day. i.e. high low difference of each bar is becoming shorter. Also after 2 days decline we observed bull’s day on last trading day. So today I expect some buying before expiry.

Ø  The warning area is premium and most of the future and nifty has hefty premium of 10% to 11% which is quite high and indicates bull’s are forcefully shifty their position and they are very bullish in the market (off course then only they will pay such a high premium as if stock is not going to available). Here our oscillator comes in the picture. It is not suggesting spending such a high premium.

Ø  Being expiry week I don’t think it will surpass 6125 lvl in this time frame and as First bigger move consumed almost 15 days with only 3 down days so this correction should consume 5 to 8 days of which we just completed 2 days. So today we might see bottom formation of temporary nature around 5890/80 lvl and a counter trend rally of “b” wave will undergo.

Ø  At least for today I don’t see breaking of 5880.

Strategy: COVER SHORT AND WAIT FOR RALLY TO MOVE IN 6080 TO 6110 AREA FOR FRESH SHORT.

·          EMA is turned in bullish mode (yet direction is not changed) with 5942/5908 lvl. 10/10

·          ADX continues to remain in bullish mode.

·          STK% is now at 55.84 FROM 66.65 in daily and at 75.94 in weekly time frame.  

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6103 and trade fresh long only and only above 6103 lvl. support 5880, 5864 and 5814 key supports.

Bank NIFTY closed at 10201 DN BY -0.42% on day basis and -4.86% on week basis.

  

Ø  Update: ADX daily is in BUY mode from 10^th September.

Ø  Also EMA is turned weak and prices are below its EMA and now at 10438/10453.

Ø  THE ST is now at 10818 and 10924 which is likely to be strongest resistance in the next up move.

Ø  The force of damage is getting over as the day passes and we observed 3^rd RED candle on last trading day which is an NRB.

Ø  SO trading or close above 10330 should give extreme short term buy. While major buy will render only above 10550.

Ø  BN is now near its previous bottom support area where we have large number of cluster as support. So bounce is expected now.

Ø  FROM HOURLY CHART IT IS CLEAR THAT LVL OF 10000 IS MORE IMPORTANT AND NOT LIKLEY TO BREACH.

BANK NIFTY: IS IN SELL MODE AND COVER SHORT ABOVE 10330 LVL. 

Again Bear’s Have Upper Hand Be Cautious at 5810. Some Bounce Is On Card !!! Expiry Syndrome Prevail: Banking: sector in trouble again

Nifty Technical Update:

Continuation to my previous thought and argument the downward move started from 6174 high is now nearing to competed wave “a” of the 3 wave decline a, b and c. Since wave “a” already gave up 23% of the last move TGT of 5923 now next lvl 0.382% is 5762 and some other parameter also indicates that it will halt around that lvl.

Being expiry week I don’t think it will surpass 6125 lvl in this time frame and as First bigger move consumed almost 15 days with only 3 down days so this correction should consume 5 to 8 days of which we just completed 2 days. So today we might see bottom formation of temporary nature around 5890/80 lvl and a counter trend rally of “b” wave will undergo. If Nifty takes support around 5767 then 6011 will be important resistance lvl while entire 3 wave correction should complete at 5640 lvl in 8 days maximum time.

I will prefer to remain short till 6011 is surpassed and closed above that.

Also I will prefer to cover my 50% short around 5880 ( a fresh short below 5870 for TGT of 5767) will under go. Since basic structure is turned weak I will reconfirm before making any long as my system is showing warning on long.

Rupee has made a low at 61.75 levels and again oscillator is turned up. We have strong resistance at 64.58 and testing of recent high seems to be remote.

Basic support for the dollar/rupee is 60.80.

Brent Crude prices is now showing end of one corrective move and close above 6820 should give strong rally. Remember my buy will trigger only above 6680 and aggressive buying above 6820.

Momentum technical oscillators RSI & Stochastic are placed and progressing in downward direction. Only I expect rally of selling opportunity.

Avoid initiating fresh positional longs at this lvl as the rally in the last 3-4 days from 5800 to 6130 has been too fast & on the back of heavy short-covering, Nifty futures could retrace first up to 5880-5767 lvl.

Strategy: HOLD SHORT with SL of 6112 lvl. Cover 50%  short near 5880.

·          EMA is turned in bullish mode (yet direction is not changed) with 5935/5935 lvl. 10/10

·          ADX continues to remain in bullish mode.

·          STK% is now at 66.65 in daily and at 74.86 in weekly time frame.  

Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6011 and trade fresh long only and only above 6011 lvl. support 5864 and 5814 AND 5741 key supports.

Bank NIFTY closed at 10244 DN BY -4.46% on day basis and 4.46% % on week basis.

  

ADX daily is in BUY mode from 10^th September. Also my SMOTHING TRADE is now at 101019/11126  which is breached yesterday indicating fresh weakness and now stay short with SL of 10500 on closing basis.

AND CLOSE BELOW THIS LVL CONSIDER WEAKNESS IN INDEX THEN EXPECT 9818  AS THE NEXT SUPPORT AREA. ON HIGHER SIDE 11300 IS THE KEY RESISTANCE LVL NOW. ARRIVED NEAR IMP SUPPORT AREA AND HENCE WE EXPECT SOME BOUNCE.

BANK NIFTY: IS IN SELL MODE AND ENTERED CORRECTION AND STAY SHORT WITH SL OF 10560 LVL. 

Nifty Correction Continues and Stay Short Till 5950 is surpassed

NIFTY is now under pressure as anticipated in my regular mail. Stay short with stop at 5950 while 5880 is crucial support level 

Entering For Short Term Correction - Buy On Decline - More Surprise To Come

Market view for the week 23 to 27th September 2013 

SECTOR REVIEW:

Nifty in past 6 days was trading and consolidating above 200 DMA, and opened with big gap of 200 points, Many were surprised by the move and ferocity of the move but readers of MY EMAIL SERVICE would have enjoyed the rally, We have discussed September is Bullish month for Indian markets and OCTOBER should give high volatility with sudden decline.

A smart come back observed with a rise of 20% in PSU bank and banking sector, while Finance and public sector enterprise showed 18% and 14.45% rise. This is a key sector in which we must consider buy on decline stocks from this sector. 

On the other hand IT is topping out and observed some bar reversal pattern in weekly and monthly time frame.

NIFTY: A smart run from 5118 NIFTY spot to 6142 observed without any correction in weekly time frame. It is likely to observed in next week and probably next weeks close may be lower then 6012 lvl. As daily oscillator turned down and moving away from overbought area (while weekly continues to be marching upward) indicates a minor decline of 38% of the last rise expected. Also during last 4 week we observed up move so minor sub wave and feeling of gap area between 5738 and 5688 not yet seen so it may try in next week or there after. Most probably I don’t see anything below 5751 in coming few weeks time.

On the higher side door for 6250 to 6430 is open. But profit booking will come around new NIFTY area. Provided the correction which I am expecting in the coming week should materialize. Next week’s close should be below last close of 6012 then a major uptrend will unfold after this anticipated decline and NIFTY will move in 6750 to even higher range.

Stock specific action will continue and more upside to observe. 

INVESTMENT IDEA: JM FINANCIAL: RS 23.95

Technically stock is now entered in up trend buy surpassing its short term EMA on monthly time frame. The stock has already started its up trend by making higher bottom and higher top since last December 2012 First bottom was established at 10.91 followed by 15.34 higher bottom and another higher bottom at 17.85. 

> Short term oscillator is turned up from oversold area and now rendering buy signal also. 

> During last week we have observed very good volume on weekly basis and is now rising.

> The spread oscillator is also turned positive and trading above zero lvl indicates more upside to come. 

> Stock has minor resistance at Rs 27 and once clear this resistance it will move in the range of 34 to 35. Its a best buy for the short term as well as medium term investment.