Nifty Technical Update:
Continuation to my previous
thought and argument the downward move started from 6174 high is now nearing to
competed wave “a” of the 3 wave decline a, b and c. Since wave “a” already gave
up 23% of the last move TGT of 5923 now next lvl 0.382% is 5762 and some other
parameter also indicates that it will halt around that lvl.
Being expiry week I don’t think
it will surpass 6125 lvl in this time frame and as First bigger move consumed
almost 15 days with only 3 down days so this correction should consume 5 to 8
days of which we just completed 2 days. So today we might see bottom formation
of temporary nature around 5890/80 lvl and a counter trend rally of “b” wave
will undergo. If Nifty takes support around 5767 then 6011 will be important
resistance lvl while entire 3 wave correction should complete at 5640 lvl in 8
days maximum time.
I will prefer to remain short
till 6011 is surpassed and closed above that.
Also I will prefer to cover my
50% short around 5880 ( a fresh short below 5870 for TGT of 5767) will under
go. Since basic structure is turned weak I will reconfirm before making any
long as my system is showing warning on long.
Rupee has made a low at 61.75 levels and again oscillator is turned up.
We have strong resistance at 64.58 and testing of recent high seems to be
remote.
Basic support for the dollar/rupee
is 60.80.
Brent Crude prices is now showing end of one corrective
move and close above 6820 should give strong rally. Remember my buy will trigger
only above 6680 and aggressive buying above 6820.
Momentum technical oscillators
RSI & Stochastic are placed and progressing in downward direction. Only I expect
rally of selling opportunity.
Avoid initiating fresh
positional longs at this lvl as the rally in the last 3-4 days from 5800 to
6130 has been too fast & on the back of heavy short-covering, Nifty futures
could retrace first up to 5880-5767 lvl.
Strategy: HOLD SHORT with SL of 6112 lvl. Cover 50% short near 5880.
·
EMA is turned in
bullish mode (yet direction is not changed) with 5935/5935 lvl. 10/10
·
ADX continues to
remain in bullish mode.
·
STK% is now at 66.65
in daily and at 74.86 in weekly time frame.
Very strong RESISTANCE is at 6011
and trade fresh long only and only above 6011 lvl. support 5864 and 5814
AND 5741 key supports.
Bank NIFTY closed at 10244 DN BY -4.46% on day basis and 4.46%
% on week basis.
ADX
daily is in BUY mode from 10th September. Also my SMOTHING TRADE is
now at 101019/11126 which is breached yesterday indicating fresh
weakness and now stay short with SL of 10500 on closing basis.
AND CLOSE BELOW THIS LVL CONSIDER
WEAKNESS IN INDEX THEN EXPECT 9818 AS
THE NEXT SUPPORT AREA. ON HIGHER SIDE 11300 IS THE KEY RESISTANCE LVL NOW.
ARRIVED NEAR IMP SUPPORT AREA AND HENCE WE EXPECT SOME BOUNCE.
BANK NIFTY: IS IN SELL MODE AND ENTERED CORRECTION AND
STAY SHORT WITH SL OF 10560 LVL.
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