FRESH SHORT BELOW 6040 AND BELOW 6000 A FREE AND FAST DROP EXPECT.

NIFTY RANGE: A very narrow range bar observed on last trading day. It failed to reach even 50% of the last bar candle. Close near the EMA 6045 support area. Now below 6040 a fresh weakness and sell off may be observed.

At present it is in buy zone from last 3 days and with SL of 6014. While on intraday basis it is in SELL mode with SL of 6080. So there is a tug of war between BULL’s and BEAR’S. 

Fresh short below 6040 more aggressive short below 6005. However, above 6120 just cover short no long.

For intra day: Buy Above 6075 SL 6046 TGT 6089, 6103 AND 6118 :

Sell Below 6040 SL 6075, 6033, 6018, 6004.

Observation: In the 30 min chart not attached now 6120 is becoming more and stronger resistance lvl while 6000 is a support lvl.

NIFTY UNLESS IT CLOSE AND TRADE BELOW 6000 DO NOT GO SHORT.

Time and Price Turing is not yet activated.

BANK NIFTY: 12771: SELL WITH SL OF 12850: MORE WEAK BELOW 12700 and will be in bearish mode below 12560. . ·         Topped at 12975 AND It is progressing in sideway to down. OUR SUPPORT AREA OF 12575 IS NOW IMP.   ·         There is a mix trend between daily and hourly chart. Avoid fresh long and just maintan earliear long with SL of 12700 for intraday and 12560 for position. CLOSE BELOW 12575 WILL BE FRESH WEAK SIGNAL

RECOMMENDATION:

SINCE WE ARE NEAR TO EXPIRY TRADE FOLLOWING STOCK FOR BUY OR SELL AND ONCE SL IS TRIGGERED REVERSE YOUR TRADE. ALL SL ARE BASED ON CLOSING LVL.

BUY  SIDE: ALL PRICES SL AND TGT ARE FOR FBE CONTRACT. DUE TO EXPIRY TODAY THERE MAY BE CHANCES OF SL TRIGGER.

CAIRN: RS 328.50. BUY WITH SL OF 323. INITIATE MORE LONG ABOVE 330. 332. 336 AND 338.

DISHTV: RS 72.70. BUY WITH SL OF 71 FEB FUTURE. ADD MORE ABOVE 73.50. TGT 75.

GODREJIND: RS 306.50. BUY WITH STRICT SL OF 303. TGT 310, 316.

HUL: RS 481.60 BUY WITH SL OF 475 TGT 485 OR ABOVE.

IOC: RS 318.50. BUY WITH SL OF 315. REVERSE TRADE BELOW 311. TGT RS 322 AND 330.

JISLJAL: 72.55. BUY WITH SL OF 71.25. TGT 75.20 AND 77.

LUPIN: RS 605. BUY WITH SL OF 594 FOR POSITION TRADING AND SL OF 600 FOR INTRADAY. TGT RS 608 FOR SHORT TERM AND RS 618 OR ABOVE FOR POSITION.

M&M: RS 903. CORRECTION FROM 923 TO 891 SEEMS TO BE OVER. BUY WITH SL OF 891. TGT 906, 912 AND 920. BELOW 891 EXPECT 885 AND 879.

MCLEOD RUSL: RS 3581.5. BUY WITH SL OF 352 TGT 361, 366 AND 373. BELOW 352 REVERSE TRADE AND EXPECT 349, 343.

SUZLON: RS 21.55. STAY LONG TILL IT IS ABOVE 21. CLOSE BELOW 21 WILL BE AND EXIT CALL.

TCS: UNDER WATCH: RS 1352. FROM LAST 3 DAYS RANGE IS VERY VERY NARROW AND INDICATES SOME STRONG MOVE IN EITHER DIRECTION. BUY ABOVE 1355 SL WILL BE 1245 TGT 1367, 1372. SELL BELOW RS 1346 SL 1355 TGT 1333 AND 1325.

SELL SIDE:

ICICI BANK: RS 1217 OR HIGHER. SELL SL 1230 TGT 1205 AND 1188.

IGL: RS 261.60. INITIATE SHORT BELOW RS 259. SL RS 263 TGT 255 AND 253.

PTC: RS 78.20. SHORT TERM TURNED WEAK. SELL WITH SL OF 81. TGT RS 76 AND 75.20.

SBI: RS 2452: SELL ON RALLY WITH SL OF 2500. SELLING CAN ME MADE NEAR RS 2466, 2480. OR FRESH SHORT BELOW 2440 TGT WOULD BE RS 2418 AND 2367. 

Crucial Days For Stock Market Up Trend. End Of Major Up move is likely to an end.

Observation:

After my turning day 22^nd Jan on last trading day NIFTY recovered from intraday support zone area of 6038. Now trading below 6028 will lead to bulls offloading and chances of smart fall is on card.  

NIFTY closing: 6077: Trade direction: DOWN AND OVERBOUGHT SITUATION LIKLEY TO OBSERVE ANOTHER SELL OFF. NOW OUR RESISTANCE LVL IS 6120 AND ABOVE THAT NO TRADING.

Reversal: For daily: 6050 (for short term up trend), For weekly: 5985 and for monthly 5955. 

For intra day:

Buy Above 6095 SL 6043 TGT 6113, 6147 AND 6165 :

Sell Below 6040 SL 6095, 6043, 6010, 5992.

Observation: In the 30 min chart not attached. 5th of 5th also turned out to be an ending diagonal.

NIFTY gave a rising wedge breakdown (not closed below the support area of while line as shown in above chart) leading to an impulsive fall. There is good OI addition in 6100 strike CE & also unwinding in near strikes PE. This further strengthens 6100 as the resistance, at-least for the expiry.
Breadth was again dismal today (as it was for last few days). No sectoral rotation helped NIFTY today as all indices were in red.

So, I continue to feel that 6100-20 could be the top for next few sessions. Trade is now on short side with 6120 as stop loss. But in-case 6120 is taken out on closing basis; reverse the trade on long side with 6100 again as the stop loss.

The daily bar chart of Nifty touched a 2 year intra-day high of 6101 on Jan 22, ‘13 but it turned out to be a ‘reversal day’ (higher high, lower close). Not all ‘reversal days’ lead to corrections or trend reversals. A sharp rise in volumes on a ‘reversal day’ is usually an indication that a correction or trend reversal may follow.

Also in last 10 days working 4 times NIFTY showed panic selling and next day recovered. (see upside arrow in the chart). Also oscillator failed to reach its previous high in spite of NIFTY made new high of recent time. This is nothing but a shift of focus from Long to side way and weakness.

Close below 6028 will be an clear warning to exit from long. 

For individual stock recommendation and NIFTY lvl please contact us at sdg5paisa@gmail.com

20 Rule of Successful Trading

Todd Mitchell’s 20 Rules for Trading Success

1. Always use stops.  Risk control is the true measure of a good consistent trader. If you lose all your capital on the lemons, you can’t play when the great trades set up. Consider cash as having an option value.
2. Don’t over trade.  This is the number one reason why individual traders and investors lose money. Look at your trades of the past year and apply the 90/10 rule. Dump the least profitable 90% and watch your performance skyrocket. Then aim for that 10%. Over trading is a great early retirement plan for your broker, not you.
3. Don’t forget to sell.  Date, don’t marry your positions. Remember, pigs get slaughtered. Always leave the last 10%-15% of a move for the next guy.
4. Don’t chase the market.  If you do, it will turn back and bite you. Wait for it to come to you. If your miss the train, there will be another one along in hours, days, weeks, or months. Patience is truly a virtue in this business.
5. When I put on a position, I calculate how much I am willing to lose to keep it.  I then put a stop just below there. If I get triggered, I just walk away. Only enter a trade when the risk/ reward is in your favor. You can start at 2:1. That means only risk a dollar to potentially make two.
6. Always be willing to go Long (Buy) and Short (Sell).  You have to be flexible and dynamic in your trading…one minute I could be long the market and the very next minute I may be short the market.  You need to be able to flip flop and be quick and nimble in your trading.
7. You don’t have to be a genius to play this came. If that was required, Wall Street would have run out of players a long time ago. If you employ risk control and stops, then you can be wrong 40% of the time, and still make a living. That’s little better than a coin toss. If you’re wrong only 30% of the time, you can make millions.  If you’re wrong only 20% of the time, you are heading a trading desk at Goldman Sachs. If you’re wrong a mere 10% of the time, you’re running a $20 billion hedge fund that the public only hears about when you pay/invest $100 million.  And if someone tells you they’re never wrong, as is often claimed on the Internet, run a mile, because it’s simply impossible!
8. Trading is hard work.  Trading attracts a lot of wide eyed, naïve, but lazy people because it appears so easy from the outside. You buy a stock (futures contract, forex, option, etf, etc.), watch it go up, and make money. How hard is that? The reality is that successful trading and or investing requires twice as much work as a normal job. The more research you put into a trade, the more comfortable you will become, and the more profitable it will be.
9. Don’t confuse a bull market with brilliance.  When the market goes straight up (i.e. 1995 to 2000) anybody and their grandmother can make money.
10. John Maynard Keynes, the great economist and early hedge fund trader of the thirties,  once said: “Markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent.” Hang around long enough, and you will see this proven time and time again.
11. Don’t believe the media.  Look for the hard data, the numbers, and you’ll see that often the talking heads, the paid industry apologists, and politicians don’t know what they’re talking about.
12. Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right.
13. INVEST like a fundamentalist, execute like a technical analyst.  (Swing) TRADE using technical analysis…then by understanding basic fundamentals will make you even better.
14. Technical analysis…knowing how to read charts like a daily newspaper is key to successful trading.  That said, learn what an “outside vertical bar” is, and who the hell is Leonardo Fibonacci.
15. The simpler a market approach, the better it works (the ‘KISS’ method).  Everyone talks about “buy low and sell high”, but few actually do it. All black boxes eventually blow up, if they were ever there in the first place.
16. Markets are made up of people.  Understand and anticipate how traders think, and you will make a lot of money.  The market is made up of peoples fear and greed…it’s all psychological…learn how to read people and you’ll certainly be ahead of everybody else.
17. Understand what information is in the market and what isn’t and you will make more money.
18. Do the hard trade, the one that everyone tells you that you are “Crazy” to do.  If you add a position and then throw up or feel sick afterwards, then you know you’ve done the right thing.
19. If you are trying to get out of a hole, the first thing to do is quit digging and throw away the shovel – exit your trade asap. A blank/neutral/flat position can be invigorating.
20. Making money in the market is an unnatural act. We humans are predators and hunters evolved to track game on the horizon of an African savanna. Modern humans are maybe 5 million years old, but civilization has been around for only 10,000 years. Our brains have not had time to make the adjustment. In the market, this means that if a stock has gone up, you believe it will continue. This is why market tops and bottoms see volume spikes. To make money, you have to go against these innate instincts. Some people are born with this ability, while others can only learn it through decades of training

NIFTY TURNED WEAK AS PER THE TIME CYCLE AND SWING CHANGE. NOW STAY AWAY FROM LONG AND KEEP SL OF 6120 FOR ALL SHORT POSITION

Observation: MY TURNING OF 22^ND IS NOW IN BEARISH TREND. SELL WITH SL OF 6120 AS YOUR KEY SL.

Date: 23/01/2013:  NIFTY closing: 6060: Trade direction: DOWN AND OVERBOUGHT SITUATION HAS RNEDERED SELL WITH 6120 AS RESISTANCE lvl.

Reversal: For daily: 6050 (for short term up trend), For weekly: 5985 and for monthly 5955. 

Buy Above 6092 SL 6049 TGT 6094, 6129 AND 6149 : Sell Below 6040 SL 6076, 6020, 5985.

Observation: As expected NIFTY turned weak from turning cycle day and now so many stock turned weak along with NIFTY. Any rally observed should be used to sell with SL of 6120.

Trends in motion will stay in motion, they will persist, until they reverse

Time cycle:  NIFTY time cycle turning is turned weak now today the 22^nd Jan

BANK NIFTY:

·         TURNED DOWN FROM12975 HIGH AND IS NOW SHOWING WEKANSS.

·         ALREADY ARRIVED NEAR THE SIMPLE 21 DAY MA AT 12696 IS BROKEN AND ST IS AT 12575 WHILE CLOSE STK% IS SHWOING NEW LOW INDICATING CHANGE IN TREND IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE.

·         CLOSE BELOW 12574 INDICATES CORRECTION STARTED.

CLOSE BELOW 12655 WILL BE FRESH WEAK SIGNAL AND 12750 WILL BE A TREND REVERSAL.

RECOMMANDATION:

SELL:

ALBANK: RS 182.50: TURNED WEAK SELL AT CMP SL RS 188 TGT 176 AND THEN 167.

BANKNIFTY: RS 12600: EMA AND ADX TURNED WEAK. SELL WITH SL OF 12750. TGT 12425, 12282.

DLF: RS 254.10. SWING TURNED WEAK SELL WITH SLOF 258. WHILE TGT IS RS 249, 245 OR 240.

GAIL: RS 370.75: SELL AS SWING DOWN WITH NOSE DIVE OBSERVED. SELL WITH SL OF 377. TGT IS NOW 364, 359 AND 348.

JSWSTEEL: RS 858.20. SELL WITH SLOF 865. TGT IS RS 851, 844.

LT: RS 1556.60: A DOUBBLE TOP AT LOWER PART OF THE CHART IS FORMEDAT 1579 AREA. SELL WITH SL OF 1580. MORE WEAK TREND BELOW 1552 FOR TGT OF RS 1535 AND 1518.

NIFTY: RS 6060.45. SWING CHANGE OBSERVED. SELL WITH SL OF 6120 TGT IS 6040, 6020 AND BELOW 6000 5965.

BUY SIDE.

RELINFRA RS 541. BUY WITH STRICT SL OF 538. TGT 551, 561. BELOW 534 REVERSE YOUR TRADE.

SBI: RS 2472: ADX AND EMA BOTH TURNED WEAK. SELL WITH SL OF 2510. TGT RS 2451, 2429 AND 2395. BEING RESULT ON CARD MUST REVERSE YOUR TRADE WITH SL OF 2510.

SUNTV: RS 425. LAST TRADING DAY HAS RENDERED BOTH BUY AND SELL. SO BUY ONLY ABOVE 433 AND SELL BELOW RS 420. IN BETWEEN ITS NO TRADING ZONE.

SYNDICATE BANK: RS 140. BUY ABOVE RS 144 FOR FRESH UP MOVE. KEEP SL OF 138.