More Correction Likely. Strong support at 5430

NIFTY D- OHLC WITH EMA AND ST%

Look at the above chart in which we have observed rising channel and on last trading day NIFTY closed exactly near the support area/lower part of the channel. As STK% is also moving away from overbought area and pointing towards downward direction. Also Nifty closed near the short term EMA rainbow which is likely to give support.

On the other hand it is trading below important weekly critical lvl of 5510 while lower support lvl is at 5395. In any case NIFTY should not go below 5395 lvl.

DERIVATIVE SEGMENT: Top 5 gainers are Nat ALU 4.92%, Idea 2.51%, OBC 2.17%, Patni 1.97% and Andhra Bank 1.38% On the other hand>>>>>
Top 5 looser are IBREALEST -4.25%, ABIRLANUVO -4.17%, PTC -3.95%, NAG CONST -3.93% and CH FERTI -3.84%.

World Market:

Dow is already weak in Daily range and now it is turned weak in weekly range also. Probable TGT is placed at 8500 lvl.

FTSE is also progressing in short term downward trend. Important and major resistance is at 5280 lvl. 

Hang Seng is progressing in short term downward trend while 21200 is major resistance lvl. Below 20500 its medium term trend also will turn weak.  

S&P 500 is very much eager or desperate to meet its previoius important low 1010 lvl. Might go even below that.

STOCK MARKET:  Out of 191 derivative list 15 stocks are showing reversal. Out of this 15 stock 14 are in rendering SELL signal while only 1 stock IDEA is +ve.

BANK NIFTY: 10947. I have observed uninterrupted uptrend from 9276 low is now topped out at 11110.95 lvl. According to me it has a support at 108880 and which is most important support. I will prefer to SELL short only and only below 10880 lvl. However i know its basic trend is up only. Will prefer to protect long with above SL. Some correction expecting.

BHEL: 2464: WEAK STOCK: The trend of BHEL seems to be weakening and further weakness i can not ruled out. The chart pattern indicates that more price damage expected when close below 2460 lvl. Trading SHORT at CMP can be a good idea yes with a strict and proper SL of Rs 2500. Probable TGT is 2390.

BPCL: 752.45. Some tiredness is observed as i have seen a non stop run from 621 low. (this is a clear signal that stock is entered in PAUSE status and "do not consider a SELL call" its critical lvl is 700 and hence unless this lvl is breached it is an up trend stock.

IDEA: 70.95. Stock is trying to enter in up trend. Buy some initial qty at CMP with SL of 68.30 as critical level (this is the lvl below which stock is weak and above that stock is strong). Add more long to your position when close above 72 is observed. Considering EMA and position of STK for short term as well as medium term looks promising. Any way I will prefer to be long with SL of 68.30.

TATA CHEM: 395: POSSIBLE weakening of Trend: Short term down. Prefer to SELL with SL of 405 with expectation of Rs 375 TGT. Its a 1:1 or 1:2 profitable trade.

TATAMOTOR: 992.10: An up move started from 748 lvl continued till 1058 peak is reached. From last 5 days stock is showing weakness. It is now trading below critical level 1020 and hence considered as weak. Also weekly reversal observed as previous week's low 992 is breached. A minimum TGT of 940 (0.382 of pr up move) is expected. Off course its a speculative calculation hence keeping of SL at 1020 is must.


Discllaimer:
Technical Analyst, Adviser to Real Big Time Position Trader in stocks, transmitted 26/08/2010 5:36:59 AM
Freelance writer: Bluchip Gujarati Weekly, Divya Bhaskar on Sunday, for stocks, Precious Metal and Currency Trading

Abbreviation DTL: Downward Trend Line, TSO Trailing Stop Order for intra day price RL remain long CMP: Current market price Note: Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Commodity, Stock, Metal Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is 6


CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES IMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN..