Nifty heading for 5334 to 5304 levels. Level 5495 is SL for short

When NIFTY close marginally positive at that time only it was clear that market will be in trouble for next trading day. Because it made a minor sub-wave in short term time frame. Also closed consecutively 3rd day below its medium term EMA and also weekly EMA is penitrated in downward direction.

Using Fibonacci ratio of the last up move (this may vary from person to person as calcuating from which level is and individual thought) from 5210 low and 5549.80 high it gives 5420 (0.382), 5379 (0.50), 5339 (0.618) and 5304 (0.722). Out of this probable four level 2 of them already reached and NIFTY is trading below its first two levels. Now what?
> It has confirmed that at 5549 top is formed. 
> After four days sharp decline a marginal advance observed was nothing but a puase status. 
> Now Nifty is trading below its short term important 25d EMA for secod consecutive day. 
> PSR turned -ve and lastly advance decline ratio also turned -ve. 
Conclusion: Considering all the above fact i personaly arrive to conclustion though long term is very very good but for short term market is vulnerable to down and is expected to correct its last entire up move. 
Strategy:  As suggested earliear either stay short or sell on intra day rally. Your SL of 5495 for swing trader and 5459 for intra day trader. Market will have to surpass 5488-5505 in sigle strong with rise in volume to re-enter in up trend.

FRESH WEAK STOCK:

BOB: 801.25. SELL WITH SL OF 817. EMA IS AT 813. IMMEDIATE TGT 789 OR 778.

GOD IND: 201.70 SELL WITH SL OF 206. EMA IS AT 207.50. IMMEDIATE TGT 197 AND LOWER.

LT: 1818.75 SELL WITH SL OF 1852. EMA IS AT 1847 AND TURNED DOWN. IMMEDIATE TGT 1797 TO 1776 LEVEL.

SIEMENS: 699.20: SELL WITH SL OF 716. EMA IS AT 714. PROBABLE TGT 686 AND 674 LEVELS. 

PROBABLE WEAKNESS EXPECTED IN: 


ICICIC BANK: 967.90: Stock is entering in a weakness/corretive decline. More weakness will appear on surface below 948 levels. Avoid long and sell short below 958 levels. Daily ema is turned weak and breched in bearish mode while weekly is likely to test at 935 area.

SBI: CMP 2800. Eexpect a weakness below 2770. At present difficult to sustain above 2820 levels.

SOME RAY OF LIGHT IN DESERT:

TATA STEEL: 527.90. Stock turned strong and +ve on last trading day. It has a potential to move up to Rs 560 to 580 levels. CLose above its EMA 520 in daily range and 517 in weekly range. Close above high of the lowest weak indicating swing reversal formation. Both daily and weekly charts are good. Minor hurdle is present at 538 area where partial profit booking is advisable.

Other stock which looks good to me are Bharti, Biocon, Dish TV, REC and Powergrid.


Written at and completed 31/08/2010


Technical Analyst, Adviser to Real Big Time Position Trader in stocks, transmitted 31/08/2010 8:12:50 AM

Above views and ideas are sollely for me and for friends for reference only and not as a trading opportunity or recommandation.
Freelance writer: Bluchip Gujarati Weekly, Divya Bhaskar on Sunday, for stocks, Precious Metal and Currency Trading


Abbreviation DTL: Downward Trend Line, TSO Trailing Stop Order for intra day price RL remain long CMP


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